Is Crime in Mexico Actually Dropping? What 2025 SESNSP Data Shows
---|---------------|---------------|--------|
| Oaxaca de Juárez | 7,323 | 5,246 | -28.4% |
| Guadalajara | 34,704 | 28,863 | -16.8% |
| Monterrey | 22,167 | 18,749 | -15.4% |
| Ciudad de México | 222,656 | 210,107 | -5.6% |
These aren't small towns — these are 4 of Mexico's largest, most important cities. Combined, they represent over 12 million people showing consistent downward crime trends.
Oaxaca: The Standout (-28.4%)
Oaxaca's decline is remarkable. From 7,323 incidents in 2024 to 5,246 in 2025 — nearly 2,100 fewer crimes. This coincides with increased tourism investment, improved policing strategies, and community safety programs.
For travelers, Oaxaca was already one of Mexico's crown jewels. Now the safety data matches the cultural appeal.
Explore Oaxaca → safetravelmexico.com/cities/oaxaca
Guadalajara's Transformation (-16.8%)
Mexico's second city shed nearly 6,000 incidents year-over-year. Robbery — the dominant crime category — saw the largest absolute decline. The Guadalajara metro area (including low-crime Zapopan at 311/100k) is increasingly competitive as a safe urban destination.
Explore Guadalajara → safetravelmexico.com/cities/guadalajara
Monterrey's Business Case (-15.4%)
Monterrey has been on a multi-year improvement trajectory. The city that was once a cautionary tale has become one of Mexico's safest large cities at 381/100k. Q4 2025 showed an additional 16.9% improvement over Q3, suggesting the trend is accelerating.
Explore Monterrey → safetravelmexico.com/cities/monterrey
The Cities Worth Watching
Not every trend is positive. Transparency matters, so here are cities where crime increased:
| City | Change | Context |
|------|--------|---------|
| San Miguel de Allende | +16.4% | Expat boom, population growth, more reporting |
| Puerto Vallarta | +7.6% | Tourism growth, domestic migration |
| Guanajuato | +4.2% | State-level organized crime challenges |
These increases don't make these cities "dangerous" — San Miguel de Allende remains a beloved expat destination, and PV is still well below the national average. But the data says pay attention.
Understanding the Trend
Several factors drive the overall improvement:
1. National Guard deployment — Increased federal security presence in tourist corridors
2. Municipal police reform — Cities like Monterrey and Guadalajara have invested heavily in training and technology
3. Economic growth — Lower unemployment correlates with lower property crime
4. Better reporting infrastructure — Paradoxically, some increases may reflect better reporting, not more crime
5. Tourist police programs — Dedicated units in Cancún, PV, CDMX, and other tourist cities
What This Means for Travelers
The data narrative about Mexico is more nuanced than headlines suggest. While security challenges remain — particularly in specific states like Tamaulipas, Zacatecas, and parts of Guerrero — the cities most tourists actually visit are trending safer.
This doesn't mean you should abandon caution. It means your caution should be informed by data, not fear.
How We Track This
Safe Travel México monitors 53 cities using official SESNSP data published quarterly. Our database contains over 1.5 million crime records with breakdowns by:
- Crime type (robbery, assault, homicide, fraud, etc.)
- Location (city level)
- Time period (monthly, quarterly, yearly)
- Trend analysis (year-over-year, quarter-over-quarter)
We update our city profiles and risk assessments every quarter.
Check any city → safetravelmexico.com/cities
Free safety assessment → safetravelmexico.com/assess
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Data source: SESNSP 2024-2025. Analysis by Safe Travel México. All rates per 100,000 population.